Colorado Republicans Face Upsets in Four Safe Seats

Colorado Republicans risk losing three of their four U.S. House seats on Tuesday, according to major political rating agencies. The Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball have downgraded these districts, indicating a potential Democratic sweep in the state’s congressional delegation. This shift would leave the party with only one representative in the state legislature.

The most dramatic change occurred in the 4th Congressional District. Lauren Boebert, the Republican incumbent, has held this seat since moving there from the 3rd District. She relocated to this district in 2023 because it is the reddest in the state. In 2024, Donald Trump won the district by 18 points. However, Cook recently changed the rating from Solid Republican to Lean Republican. They skipped the Likely Republican category entirely. This marks a sharp decline in perceived safety for the incumbent.

Cook noted that the district should not be competitive based on past results. However, they observed that Boebert has left six million dollars worth of attack ads unanswered. Some polling now points to a surprisingly close race. The Democratic challenger is retired Rear Admiral Eileen Laubacher. She has raised more than thirteen million dollars for her campaign. In contrast, Boebert has raised barely over one million dollars. Despite these numbers, Republicans still hold nearly one hundred thousand more registered voters in the district than Democrats.

The 5th Congressional District presents another challenge for the GOP. This district has been Republican for decades. Jeff Crank, the incumbent, won by fourteen points in 2024. Now, rating experts have the race rated as a tossup. The Democratic challenger is Jessica Killin. She served as an Army captain and worked as chief of staff for three House Democrats and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff. The shift reflects changing demographics in Colorado Springs, which was once rated as the fourth most conservative city in the country by MIT and UCLA in 2014.

In the 3rd Congressional District, Republican Jeff Hurd is the incumbent. Analysts currently rate this seat as Likely Republican. However, the race has become closer in recent polls. Democrats have poured two point one million dollars into the campaign of challenger Dwayne Romero. Romero is a West Point graduate, a Harvard MBA holder, and a former Army Ranger. He is the third military veteran running on the Democratic side in these four districts.

The 8th Congressional District was previously the hottest race in the state. It is now rated Lean Democrat. Gabe Evans is the Republican incumbent. He is facing Democratic challenger Manny Rutinel. Cook has rated this race Lean Democrat since the summer primaries. The heat has definitely gone down in this contest compared to earlier in the cycle.

Nate Silver’s computers put Democrats at 94.7 percent to win the House nationally. They predict Democrats will pick up twenty-four seats. In the Senate, the odds are 78.3 percent for a Democratic majority, with a prediction of six net seat gains. These national trends are influencing local races in Colorado. The state currently has a four to four split in its U.S. House delegation. Democrats hold all statewide offices and may achieve supermajorities in the state House and Senate after counting ends.