NFL picks against the spread, Week 10: Expert predictions, best bets and player props for Nov. 15

The 2026 NFL season is officially past its halfway point, and the Week 10 slate on Sunday, Nov. 15, promises a full day of action. The schedule features Vikings vs. Packers, Bills vs. Jets and 49ers vs. Cowboys, followed by Steelers vs. Bengals on Sunday Night Football and Chargers vs. Ravens on Monday night. Drawing on game film, data and advanced statistics, SportsLine's team of experts has delivered its top against the spread picks and player props.

The day opens at 9:30 a.m. ET in Munich, Germany, with Patriots vs. Lions. Alex Selesnick, known as PropStarz, likes Detroit's Amon-Ra St. Brown to go over 77.5 receiving yards against a New England pass defense that ranks 26th in EPA allowed per dropback and has struggled against opposing slot receivers. Selesnick called St. Brown "the league's best slot WR" and expects him to remain Jared Goff's primary target in a game that could become a shootout.

In the 1 p.m. ET window, Adam Thompson is backing Kansas City, favored by three points, against Atlanta. The Chiefs have held four of seven opponents to 12 points or fewer, while the Falcons, led by Michael Penix, have managed 17 total points over the last two weeks. Atlanta's defense has been just as ineffective during its 1-4 stretch, allowing at least 30 points three times, and Kansas City ranks second in yards allowed per rush on the road.

Prop Bet Guy Doug highlighted a pair of pass-catching props. He expects Houston's Tank Dell to clear 30.5 receiving yards against Cleveland after Dell's route share spiked to 55% coming out of the bye, with the Browns running the most man-heavy coverage scheme in the NFL. Doug also took the Jets' Breece Hall over 2.5 receptions against Buffalo: Hall was targeted four times on only eight routes in his return last week, coach Aaron Glenn continues to call him the starter, and the Bills allow the most targets per game to running backs.

R.J. White played the running back markets from both sides. He took Minnesota's Aaron Jones under 8.5 carries against Green Bay, noting Jones has played less than 40% of the offensive snaps in all three games since Jordan Mason returned from injured reserve, and that the Vikings' trade for quarterback Kirk Cousins signals no heavier reliance on the run. White also backed Indianapolis' Jonathan Taylor to top 14.5 carries against a Dolphins team projected to be the league's worst, with the Colts in the rare role of favorites.

Selesnick also likes Carolina's Chuba Hubbard to go over 75.5 rushing yards against a Saints run defense ranked 29th in EPA allowed per rush, expecting the Panthers to lean on him while their passing offense struggles. Mike Tierney is comfortable laying 10.5 points with Jacksonville against Tennessee. "Jacksonville is in it to win it. The Super Bowl, that is," Tierney said, citing a defense allowing the league's second fewest points per game that added three players Monday, notably defensive tackle Jordan Davis from Philadelphia. Four of the Jaguars' six wins have come by at least 23 points.

In the late window, White took the under on 40.5 total points in Rams vs. Cardinals, with both offenses depleted: Puka Nacua is set to join Davante Adams on injured reserve for Los Angeles, while Arizona could lose Gardner Minshew and Michael Wilson for the season. Sia Nejad expects Seattle's Zach Charbonnet to surpass 58.5 rushing yards against the Raiders, projecting 13 to 15 carries after Charbonnet moved past rookie Jadarian Price in snaps and usage. The game also marks Fernando Mendoza's debut as an NFL starter.

Larry Hartstein is laying 3.5 points with San Francisco against Dallas. The Cowboys have dropped their last two home games, rank 29th in defensive EPA and will be without tight end Jake Ferguson, running back Ty Goodson and safety P.J. Locke, all injured in the Week 9 win at Indianapolis. With Brock Purdy leading the NFL's top passing offense, which could also get Deebo Samuel back, Hartstein said: "Look for San Fran to win by at least a touchdown."

On Sunday night, White favors Cincinnati, minus 3.5 points, against Pittsburgh. The Bengals have scored 15 touchdowns across five halves and one overtime period since largely ditching their under-center strategy at halftime of Week 7, and Pittsburgh needed a fourth-quarter muffed punt to win the first meeting. White said he is "penciling the Bengals in for 30+ points until someone shows they can be stopped," adding he would set the line closer to six points.

The week closes Monday, Nov. 16, with Hartstein backing Baltimore, favored by 4.5 points, against the winless Chargers, who have yet to cover a spread this season. The Ravens had extra rest following their primetime loss to Jacksonville and will start trade acquisition Jacoby Brissett instead of injured undrafted free agent Joe Fagnano, while Los Angeles could turn to DJ Uiagalelei if Justin Herbert's finger injury is serious. Bettors are reminded to practice responsible gaming, and help is available around the clock by calling or texting 1-800-MY-RESET.