Retired general says new Iran strikes will not end war

Retired Army Gen. Joseph Votel stated that a new wave of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran will likely weaken the country's military assets but will not stop the war. Votel, who led U.S. Central Command from 2016 to 2019, told NPR that previous strikes failed to change Tehran's strategic calculations despite repeated hits on key targets.

The former general argued that Washington must first define a clear end state before launching further operations. He identified two primary goals for the U.S.: reopening the Strait of Hormuz to restore oil commerce and resolving the issue of nuclear enrichment. Votel noted that a clear objective would allow military, economic, and diplomatic pressures to work in coordination rather than in isolation.

Votel pointed to financial pressure as the area showing the most visible progress. He cited reporting that Iran's shadow fleet has run out of oil, a result of current blockades and sanctions. Although this economic squeeze takes time to fully materialize, he described the movement in that direction as definite and growing.

Regarding the U.S. military's readiness, Votel said offensive capabilities in the region are substantial and not in question. However, he identified missile defense as a potential constraint. Earlier reports indicated heavy pressure on defensive interceptors protecting U.S. forces and regional partners. He assessed that while the U.S. can strike effectively, the ability to defend may face limitations during a prolonged campaign.

Votel also addressed the role of regional proxies in the conflict. He acknowledged that Iran uses groups like the Houthis to create instability across the Arabian Peninsula. However, he maintained that the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear program remain the principal concerns for American policymakers. In his view, success requires a coordinated strategy and the patience to see it through to a declared end.

The general concluded that strikes can punish Tehran and buy time, but they will not end the war without a defined goal. He emphasized that the U.S. needs to articulate how it will declare the conflict finished. Without that clarity, further bombing risks becoming another cycle of attacks that Iran can absorb and rebuild from.