120 Seats Decide Fate in Tight Israeli Election

Israelis voted on Tuesday in a Knesset election defined less by ideological lines than by a direct referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu. After three decades in Israeli politics, Netanyahu has served as prime minister for 19 of the last 30 years. Current polling indicates that the pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu blocs are separated by only a few seats, making the contest for the 120 parliamentary seats the central mechanism of the vote.

The opposition is led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff who entered politics four years ago. His party, Yashar, which translates to direct, promotes a style devoid of political theater. Eisenkot proposes U.S.-style term limits for the prime minister, arguing that power corrupts. At a recent rally in Modi'in, attendees described his plain demeanor as a refreshing contrast to traditional politicians. One voter, Noa Sadeh, said she was tired of people who know how to talk and wanted a leader who would do the doing.

The opposition coalition includes former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, both of whom previously aligned with the right before breaking with Netanyahu. On the far right, Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party is campaigning to pull the government further right. Yishai Fleisher of the party told voters in Bet Shemesh that Netanyahu drifts left and needs to be checked. Ben-Gvir’s platform includes expanding settlements, creating a ministry for voluntary Palestinian departure, and implementing the death penalty.

Netanyahu’s campaign has framed the election as a choice between Yamin, or the right, and Falastin, or Palestine. His posters place opposition leaders alongside parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, who constitute about a fifth of the population. Pro-Netanyahu media, particularly Channel 14, have kept the opposition on the defensive. This week, Channel 14 presenter Yinon Magal called Eisenkot a Moroccan monkey, a slur that Eisenkot’s team did not explicitly address during their rallies.

Observers note the tight race is surprising given the circumstances of Netanyahu’s tenure. The deadliest attack in Israeli history occurred on October 7, 2023, while he was in power. The subsequent war in Gaza killed more than 70,000 Palestinians, with Israel stating a third were Hamas combatants, but did not eliminate the group. Netanyahu also faces legal challenges, including an ongoing corruption trial and the fallout from his attempt to curb the supreme court.

Netanyahu’s resilience is attributed to a loyal base that has endured reports he received credible warnings before the October 7 attack. His allies claim army and intelligence chiefs kept him in the dark, a claim critics call unfounded. Opposition hopes rely partly on secular expatriate Israelis returning to vote, a demographic pollsters often miss. If the result hinges on a single seat, these voters could be decisive.

On Thursday, a state ceremony marked the 31st anniversary of the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin in 1995. Netanyahu did not attend, sending a low-ranking minister in his place. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party, expressed optimism that opposition leaders could agree on a long-term security strategy. A video shared widely this week showed young Israelis singing Shir LaShalom, a song Rabin performed before he was shot, suggesting a shift in public sentiment.