Analysts Predict Third U.S.-Iran War Phase After Nov. 3 Midterms
More than 7,000 people have died in Iran as experts warn that fighting may resume with strikes on Gulf energy sites following the midterm election.
By Madison Darwish ·
Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military intelligence official, warned that the United States and Israel will likely restart their war with Iran after the November 3 midterm election. He argued that a third round of combat could prove more destructive than the previous two engagements. "A renewed war seems almost inevitable," Citrinowicz said.
The conflict began in June 2025 when the U.S. and Israel struck Iranian nuclear facilities. That first campaign lasted 12 days before a fragile ceasefire took hold. Fighting resumed in February 2026 following a major U.S. military buildup, opening with Israeli attacks on Iranian senior leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Citrinowicz, who now works with the Institute for National Security Studies, expects the next phase to target Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz. He also noted that Iran might deploy parts of its land army to attack U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. The goal, he said, would be to inflict maximum damage on the American economy.
Since the summer truce collapsed, both sides have largely avoided fresh strikes on each other's territory, but tensions remain high. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, while Iran continues to target commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. On Thursday, President Donald Trump accused Iran on Truth Social of inflating oil prices before the midterms by "making up fake hits, mines and everything else."
Iranian officials are demanding relief from sanctions, reparations for strike damage, the release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks attempting to restart talks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that retaliation could come from proxies like the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, potentially targeting airports and other soft economic sites.
The human cost has been severe. Western NGOs report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran, while Lebanese media cite over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. The conflict has claimed the lives of 21 U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis. Deaths have also been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken of "finishing the job" and faces voters in a close race in the coming days. Citrinowicz suggested that a widening crisis could help Netanyahu maintain power through an emergency unity government. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace noted that diplomacy is not dead but has been narrowed by Trump's maximalist aims. "If you're asking them to change their identity, that's not going to succeed," Sadjadpour said.
The Pentagon is currently drafting a new battle plan, according to reports from The New York Times and other U.S. outlets. It remains unclear whether President Trump will approve the plan before or after the November 3 vote.
Source: CBC News
