Broncos Back J.K. Dobbins Runs Better After December When He Plays Less Early

The Denver Broncos are keeping J.K. Dobbins on the bench in the second half of games, and new data suggests the strategy is working.

Dobbins has faced questions about his limited role under head coach Sean Payton. In a 30-16 win at Arizona last Sunday, Dobbins recorded only two carries after halftime. He also started the season with a low volume of touches, averaging 12.4 carries per game in 2026. This figure is the lowest usage rate for the running back since 2022, when he averaged 11.5 carries over his first eight appearances.

Dobbins told reporters at Dove Valley that the coaching staff has a specific plan for him. He stated, “I’m a math guy, OK?” He added that the organization is saving him for the long haul and that he is always there to coach his younger teammates. His primary goal, he said, is to win a Super Bowl, and he believes the current approach helps the team achieve that objective.

The argument for limiting his early-season workload is supported by historical data from the Grading The Week office. When Dobbins logged 100 or fewer carries in his first eight games of a season, he averaged 6.1 yards per carry in all appearances after December 1. Across those late-season games, he totaled 94 carries and 572 rushing yards.

The performance drops when he carries a heavier load earlier in the year. In seasons where he accumulated 101 or more carries after eight games, Dobbins averaged just 3.6 yards per carry in post-December appearances. Those later games included 46 carries for 165 rushing yards. The difference in efficiency is stark: 6.1 yards per carry in the low-volume scenarios versus 3.6 in the high-volume scenarios.

Dobbins has a history of playing fewer games in the latter part of the season. From December 1 onward in his seven-year career, he has appeared in only 11 regular-season games. By comparison, he has played in 43 games from September through November. He has made four postseason appearances, with a record of 1 win and 3 losses, though he has not yet played in a playoff game with Denver.

The Broncos face a decision regarding their roster construction ahead of their Sunday game against the Kansas City Chiefs. They are considering whether to keep Dobbins or trade him for Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor. Dobbins is on pace for 100 carries through the first eight games if he records 13 against the Chiefs. That threshold appears to be the dividing line for his late-season effectiveness.

Financial constraints add weight to the decision. The Broncos had $4.4 million in cap space as of last Friday afternoon, according to OverTheCap.com. Acquiring Taylor would require a $21 million cap hit in 2027 and a $22.98 million hit in 2028. The team must weigh the proven late-season efficiency of Dobbins against the projected impact of a superstar back who averages 22 carries in December and January games.

The Broncos currently hold a 5-2 record and host the Chiefs in a matchup for the top of the AFC West. The outcome of this game and the subsequent performance of Dobbins will test the validity of the usage data. The team will determine if the math supports keeping the veteran back or if the cost of replacing him is justified by his current role.