Can Netanyahu take Israel back to war with Iran before he leaves office?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still in power as a caretaker after losing his majority in last month's elections, and he could remain for months while the opposition struggles to form a coalition. Politically weakened, he is reported to be weighing new military action against Iran despite little enthusiasm from the United States, his own military establishment or the politicians vying to replace him.

Formally, a caretaker government holds the same authority as a regular one: Article 30 of the Basic Law says an interim government keeps performing its duties until a new one takes over. The Supreme Court, however, has ruled that outgoing governments must avoid irreversible moves unless urgent, a principle called the duty of restraint.

In practice, Netanyahu could still launch an attack with his caretaker cabinet's approval, presenting it as urgent and in the national interest, said Neve Gordon, professor of international law at Queen Mary University of London. Security issues are "the clearest exception" to the duty of restraint, Or Asher of Tel Aviv's Tachlith Institute told Reuters. "A caretaker prime minister can legally take Israel to war, including against Iran," Asher said.

Ehab Jabareen, an analyst and Palestinian citizen of Israel, told Al Jazeera that caretaker status raises the "political burden of proof": Netanyahu would be asking Israelis to accept the consequences of a decision that could outlast his government.

Israeli media reported on Wednesday that Netanyahu's security cabinet ordered the military to step up preparations for an attack on Iran, directives KAN said "could lead it to carry out activities that could trigger a war". Ynet News said Netanyahu has repeatedly phoned US President Donald Trump to press for a new campaign, conversations that at least once turned heated. KAN quoted a US military official on Thursday saying Washington had told Israel to prepare for a new confrontation, but Central Command called them "mere speculation". Channel 13 said the military sees no urgent need to attack, an assessment presented to Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot, the opposition leader tasked with forming the next government.

The opposition has demanded Netanyahu avoid military action unless critical. Avigdor Lieberman, leader of Yisrael Beytenu, said the caretaker government must not "make decisions that could drag Israel into war without parliamentary oversight and without the full agreement of all security officials". Eisenkot warned in a letter on Wednesday that deploying forces "without a direct and immediate threat that cannot wait could have devastating consequences for Israeli democracy". Netanyahu replied that decisions are based solely on "security considerations".

Gordon said war would split the country: Netanyahu's backers would support him, the change bloc would see a bid to cling to power, yet most opponents would still rally around the flag. Jabareen agreed rallying is likely if missiles fall, but said it shows little about whether Israelis think another round was justified. The debate, he said, would centre on the question: why now?

Washington may be the biggest obstacle: the Trump administration says it is doubling down on economic pressure rather than more large-scale military action, and Gordon said Netanyahu's problem is a loss of appetite in the US. A joint campaign would be easier, Anders Persson, a political scientist specialising in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, told Al Jazeera, but the more Netanyahu provokes Iran without Trump's support, the harder it will be for him and the Israeli public to accept.

Israeli caretaker governments have gone to war before, and Netanyahu has done it himself. In May 2021, weeks after his party lost seats, he launched an 11-day war in Gaza that killed at least 260 people in the Palestinian enclave, while 13 died in Israel. The fighting briefly stalled efforts to replace him, but a government led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid was formed a month later, ending his 12-year tenure. Ehud Olmert and Lapid also ordered Gaza operations as caretakers; Olmert's 2008 war was the deadliest, killing about 1,400 Palestinians.