Exit polls show Arab blocs winning 18 Knesset seats as Israeli turnout hits 77.7 percent

Exit polls released after Tuesday's vote in Israel indicated that Arab-led parties are on track to win 18 seats in the 120-member Knesset, a record for the bloc. The result follows a sharp increase in participation among Palestinian citizens of Israel, a demographic that comprises approximately 21 percent of the country's 10 million residents.

The Central Elections Committee reported overall turnout at 77.7 percent, the highest figure recorded since 1999. Channel 12 reported that turnout among Palestinian citizens specifically reached around 80 percent, breaking the previous record set in that same year. Historically, this group has voted at lower rates than Jewish Israelis.

Updated polling data placed the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party at 51 seats. This figure ties the bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party, also at 51 seats. Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff, leads the opposition challenge to Netanyahu's government.

Mansour Abbas, leader of the Ra'am party, told Channel 12 that the current numbers suggest no governing majority has been formed. He stated, "With the numbers we have now, there is no government." Abbas hopes the final count will allow the anti-Netanyahu bloc, which includes his party, to reach the 61 seats required to form a cabinet. Ra'am currently holds five seats and was part of the governing coalition from 2021 to 2022.

Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli ambassador, noted that coalition negotiations may be difficult for Eisenkot's bloc. He explained that the opposition pledged during the campaign not to form coalitions with Arab parties. Pinkas said, "There's a price to pay," because Arab parties cannot be excluded until their votes are needed. He added that Arab-led lists will likely make demands that Jewish-led coalitions may resist.

Netanyahu and his far-right coalition made final appeals on Tuesday, pointing to the high turnout in Arab communities. Likud supporters drove through Jerusalem playing the Islamic call to prayer over loudspeakers to urge voting. On social media, Netanyahu shared images of lines at polling stations and warned, "If we don't wake up now, we'll find ourselves with a government of Mansour Abbas and Ahmad Tibi."

Nour Odeh, reporting from Ramallah in the West Bank, described the election as an existential moment for Palestinian-Israelis. She noted that the high turnout included voters who typically boycott elections due to systemic discrimination. The Knesset has passed more than 100 laws affecting Palestinian citizens, who also face disparities in state funding.