Israel Election: Arab Bloc Holds Balance of Power

No single party has won an outright parliamentary majority in Israel’s fragmented system, a structural reality that now leaves both leading candidates without the seats needed to govern. Opinion polls indicate a tight race between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, with neither side commanding a clear path to power.

The election is Israel’s first national vote since the October 7, 2023, attack that triggered the war in Gaza. The vote is not only a referendum on leadership but also on the country’s character, pitting religious and ultranationalist forces against liberal and secular values. Parties backing Eisenkot have pledged to conscript ultra-Orthodox men, bolster judicial independence, and improve Israel’s international standing.

Netanyahu, who has faced an ongoing corruption trial, is viewed by his supporters as a steady hand who protected Israel’s Jewish identity and checked the judiciary. His detractors accuse him of dragging out the Gaza war and hostage crisis for political gain while weakening democratic institutions. Eisenkot, whose son and two nephews were killed in Gaza, is seen by his backers as a security-focused leader capable of reversing what they describe as creeping illiberalism.

The decisive factor may be the Arab-led parties, which are pushing for heavy turnout. If these nonaligned groups agree to support one candidate over the other, they could become kingmakers. Without their support, weeks of coalition negotiations may follow before a leader is declared.

Tensions with Iran hang over the vote. Netanyahu appeared in a video this week beside a missile-defense battery, warning Tehran of a “devastating blow” if it attacked Israel. In Kiryat Shmona, a Netanyahu stronghold near the Lebanese border, a man kicked and tore down a poster of Eisenkot as polls opened.

In Tel Aviv, families of victims killed on October 7, 2023, or former hostages held a moment of silence. Yona Adam, whose daughter Mapal Adam was killed, said, “Remember all those whose voices are no more.”

Israel has grown increasingly isolated since the 2023 attack, with public support among Americans plummeting and European partners imposing sanctions. The election determines whether Israel continues under Netanyahu’s turbulent four-year term or shifts direction under a new coalition.