Speaker Burrows spends $10.3 million to defend Texas House majority

Texas House Speaker Dustin Burrows has spent more than $10.3 million on behalf of 38 Republican candidates since the May runoff. The outlay is part of a high-stakes effort to retain the GOP majority in the state lower chamber during the midterm elections held next week.

Burrows, a sixth-term legislator from Lubbock, views the size of the Republican margin as a determinant for the scope of conservative policy ambitions in the upcoming 140-day session. A thin cushion could invite a challenge for the speakership from a more moderate Republican backed by Democrats, a scenario that played out after the 2008 election. A closely divided House would also limit the number of defections Burrows can afford on party-line votes.

The Republican strategy involves direct financial support, polling, and advertising. Burrows' leadership PAC, Texas Conservative Majority, has raised nearly $8 million since late May. The group has made six-figure contributions to incumbents in districts that President Donald Trump won by as little as one percentage point in 2024. State Rep. Candy Noble in Collin County received over $205,000, while State Rep. Brad Buckley in Bell County received $384,000. The Texas Freedom Alliance spent an additional $1.6 million on digital advertising and text messages.

Incumbents in historically safe districts are also ramping up operations. State Rep. Ben Bumgarner, who won his North Texas seat by 11 points in 2024, and State Rep. Jeff Leach, who carried his district with 60.3% of the vote in the previous cycle, both more than doubled their fundraising in the last reporting period. Enrique Marquez, former chief of staff to Speaker Dade Phelan, described the effort as coordinated and data-driven, noting that the stakes for the party are high.

Burrows has also deployed a physical presence in battleground areas. His operation launched the Speaker’s Strike Force, a bus tour intended to visit more than two dozen House districts and drive voter turnout. This follows a June summit at the Omni Austin Hotel where Burrows told newly nominated Republicans that the political environment would be difficult and that every member had to run a competitive race.

Democrats are targeting seats in the suburbs of major metro areas and South Texas. State Rep. Christina Morales, chair of the House Democrats’ campaign arm, said the party expects to pick up anywhere from five to eight seats. National Democrats are targeting 12 flips, which would leave the GOP with a two-seat majority. Morales noted that Republicans are spending money in every district, forcing them onto their heels.

The most competitive races are concentrated in areas with large Latino populations that swung right in 2024. Democrats are targeting State Rep. Denise Villalobos in Corpus Christi, a district Trump won by one point in 2024 but Beto O’Rourke won by 16 points in 2018. They are also challenging State Rep. Janie Lopez in the Rio Grande Valley. In the suburbs, State Reps. Morgan Meyer and Angie Chen Button in Dallas County remain targets, as do Republicans in districts around Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and Fort Worth.

Both parties expect the U.S. Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton to lift the blue team down the ballot. Texas Democratic Party Chair Kendall Scudder said no Republican gets a free ride in the state. Burrows’ spokesperson, Kim Carmichael, stated that the speaker believes standing behind members is a fundamental responsibility. Burrows is the first speaker in recent memory to campaign effectively for the right to extend his speakership during the fall election cycle.