Texas Early Vote Falls Short of 2018 Pace

Nearly 4.5 million Texans cast a ballot during the first seven days of early voting for the November 3 election. The turnout reached 23.4% of registered voters, a figure that slightly trails the 24.3% recorded in the same period during the 2018 midterm. However, the current pace has outpaced the early voting numbers from 2022.

The voting window opened on October 19 and continues through Friday. Derek Ryan, a Republican consultant and data analyst, anticipates a surge in participation during the final days of early voting. He estimates that 20% to 30% of total votes will be cast between Wednesday and Friday. Ryan predicts that as many as 10 million Texans may vote, which would place the final turnout near the 53% recorded in 2018.

Analysts caution against interpreting the early numbers as a definitive partisan signal because Texas voters do not register with a political party. Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, noted that the lack of clear benchmarks makes early vote data an incomplete picture. He described the process as evolving, with each election presenting unique characteristics.

Ryan’s analysis of voter history reveals a shift in early turnout demographics. Voters who participated in a Democratic primary accounted for 35% of ballots cast, slightly ahead of the 33% from Republican primary voters. Ryan stated that this is a new trend, as Republican primary voters historically held a larger share in the early stages of 2022 and 2024 elections. About 29% of early voters had no previous primary history or voted only in general elections, while 4% had mixed primary participation.

County-level records reflect high initial enthusiasm. Harris County, the state’s most populous county, set a midterm first-day record with more than 127,000 votes. Dallas County recorded over 88,000 votes on day one, a record for any election. Matt Angle, a Democratic strategist, said these urban figures align with Democratic targets of securing around 40% of the final vote from large urban counties and less than 25% from rural areas.

Hispanic voters comprised 18% of early ballots as of Sunday, up one point from 2024 and two points from 2022. Angle indicated that Democrats aim for Latino voters to make up about 24% of the final vote. Vinny Minchillo, a GOP strategist, observed that while Democratic enthusiasm is higher, Republican turnout has increased in response. He described himself as cautiously optimistic for the Republican side. Ryan noted that Republicans need a substantial number of the 2.1 million voters who participated in recent GOP primaries to turn out for the general election to remain competitive.

A record 19 million Texans are registered to vote in the November 3 election. This figure is 7.7% higher than the registered voter count ahead of the 2022 midterm.