Three voter groups could decide control of Congress

Millions of ballots are already in ahead of Tuesday's election, and the balance of Congress may come down to three groups of voters rather than party labels. Lincoln Mitchell, a political analyst and professor at Columbia University, is tracking where turnout may soften and where it may hold.

Mitchell's first group is rural voters. Tariffs on agricultural goods and the cost of home heating and diesel are squeezing household budgets in those communities. He does not expect a wholesale party switch, but he said financial pressure could lower turnout or cut into enthusiasm for Republicans and President Donald Trump.

The second group is Latino voters. Mitchell said that bloc is not uniform in its politics, and its influence will matter most in battleground states, including Texas, where one of the cycle's most competitive Senate races is underway. The GOP has gained among Hispanic voters in Texas, Arizona and Florida, and Mitchell questioned whether those gains will stick.

The third is young white men, who turned out heavily for Trump in 2024. Mitchell pointed to foreign policy and affordability as the two factors that could move them. If some of those voters stay home or drift from the GOP, Republican candidates on the ballot feel it.

Midterm elections have historically cut against the party holding the White House. Trump has told supporters to vote as if his name were on the ballot this year. Results arrive Tuesday night.