52 Seats: Polls Put Opposition Ahead in Israel's Tuesday Vote

Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday for the first national election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023. The vote will determine the composition of the 120-seat Knesset and the direction of a government facing multiple fronts.

Final polls released before a publication ban took effect on Friday show no side holding a clear path to power. A survey by public broadcaster KAN projects the opposition alliance will win 52 seats, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc is expected to secure 50. The remaining 18 seats are projected to go to unaffiliated parties, including the two main Arab-majority lists, Ra’am and the Joint List.

The race pits two distinct coalitions against each other. Netanyahu’s camp includes his Likud party, the far-right parties Otzma Yehudi and Religious Zionism-Zehut, and the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism and Shas. The opposition brings together four Jewish-led movements: the Yashar party of Gadi Eisenkot, the Democrats led by Yair Golan, Yisrael Beiteinu under Avigdor Lieberman, and the Together alliance joined by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and opposition leader Yair Lapid.

Both major blocs have ruled out immediate partnerships with the Arab-led parties. This stance creates a mathematical hurdle, as neither side appears capable of forming a stable government without them. Analysts suggest this could lead to a minority government or a repeat election if coalition talks fail.

Domestic issues are driving voter sentiment. Many Israelis are demanding accountability for security failures leading up to October 7. The military exemption for the ultra-Orthodox community remains a point of intense anger. Critics also cite Netanyahu’s judicial reform efforts as a threat to the liberal democratic order. Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, described the vote as the last chance to save Israeli democracy for secular and liberal factions.

The election comes against a backdrop of declining international standing. Several allied nations have sanctioned Israeli settlements in the West Bank, while others have condemned continued military operations in Gaza and Lebanon. During Netanyahu’s address to the UN General Assembly on September 24, dozens of envoys walked out in protest, accompanied by jeering and booing.

Personal stakes are high for Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for more than 15 of the last 17 years. He faces ongoing corruption charges dating to 2019 and scrutiny over the pre-attack security lapses. A loss could weaken his position in court and affect the timeline of his trial. He also remains subject to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes.

Approximately 7.3 million Israeli citizens are eligible to vote, including roughly 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. Polls suggest turnout among the Arab community could reach 60 percent, potentially securing 15 seats for their parties. Campaigners are targeting a 70 percent turnout, which would be the highest in decades.

The Central Elections Committee recently reversed a decision to ban the Joint List and Ra’am following a Supreme Court order. The court also removed Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh from the race after he called the October 7 attacks an important historical event in a published article.

Netanyahu has argued that his rivals are likely to form a government with the Arab parties, positioning Likud as the only barrier. Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Knesset member Ayman Odeh, suggested this narrative could help Netanyahu remain in office as a caretaker if no majority emerges. Roughly three million adult Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem will not vote, though their borders and legal status are controlled by the incoming government.