Statistics Lebanon: 66.4% of Shi'ites Back State Control of Hezbollah Arms

Statistics Lebanon published results from a September survey indicating that a majority of Lebanese Shi'ites now favor handing Hezbollah's weapons over to the state. The poll, which sampled 800 individuals, found that 66.4% supported state control of the arsenal, while 29.6% preferred the group retain its weapons. This data marks a notable departure from earlier findings, as Hezbollah has historically argued its arsenal is essential for national defense against Israel.

The shift in sentiment follows a turbulent period for the community. In September 2024, Hassan Nasrallah, the group's leader, was killed. A new conflict erupted in March 2026, causing heavy destruction in villages across southern Lebanon. These events occurred against a backdrop where a May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International had shown 87.5% of Shi'ites opposing disarming the group. The contrast between the May and September figures has prompted questions about how survey wording influences public opinion.

Detailed results from the September poll suggest deepening trust in the Lebanese Armed Forces. Approximately 78.5% of respondents said they trusted the army, and 51.1% identified it as the institution best positioned to guarantee long-term security. By comparison, only 16.5% selected Hezbollah for that role. Furthermore, 71.1% of participants stated that decisions regarding war and peace should rest solely with the Lebanese state, with just 5.9% supporting a larger role for Hezbollah's leadership in shaping the country's future.

Opinions on Hezbollah's performance during the war with Israel were divided. Some 67.4% of respondents said the group had either failed to meet its goals or achieved only some of them. Additionally, 42.1% expressed disappointment, anger, or concern regarding the group's leadership and the conflict's consequences. Despite this criticism, 59.5% still reported some level of trust in the organization, including 37.1% who expressed a great deal of confidence.

Local signs of wariness have emerged in the south. In Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of Al-Qard Al-Hassan, a financial institution linked to Hezbollah, in their building. Residents feared the branch could become a target for an Israeli strike, a risk realized in previous attacks. In response to the destruction, Hezbollah has announced financial aid packages. Eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed can receive up to $14,000, while those in other areas can receive up to $12,000.

Researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni, writing for Israel's Institute for National Security Studies in June, argued that Hezbollah's influence relies on its social and economic networks and the historical marginalization of Shi'ites. They noted that intimidation has often discouraged dissent within the community. According to their analysis, weakening the group would require a stronger Lebanese army supported by Western and Gulf financial resources, allowing the state to replace the services Hezbollah currently provides.

The survey results, reported by KAN and Kataeb.org, highlight a complex transition in Lebanese politics. While trust in the army has grown, Hezbollah maintains a strong base of support through its established networks. The group's ability to sustain its position will depend on its capacity to provide security, reconstruction, and economic opportunity to its community.