Midterm voting closes with House and Senate control in balance

Voting officially ends today as Americans cast their ballots in the midterm elections. The results will determine which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. More than 59 million people have already voted by mail or in early voting sessions. This figure represents nearly half of the total ballots cast during the previous midterm cycle.

Democrats currently hold a double-digit advantage in the House based on available early voting data. They need to flip three seats to gain control of the chamber. The political environment has shifted in their favor over the past month. Republicans attempted to protect their seats through rare mid-decade redistricting, but this strategy is unlikely to prevent a Democratic takeover of the House.

The race for the Senate is less predictable. Democrats need to flip four seats to secure a majority. This scenario was considered unlikely at the start of the election cycle. Strong Democratic candidates and a challenging national political climate for Republicans have made this outcome possible. North Carolina is the only seat where Democrats are currently favored to win.

The remaining competitive Senate races are held on Republican turf. Apart from Maine, the five toss-up states are those that President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. Republicans are the slight favorites in these contests. The party's top target is Michigan. If Republicans win that seat, the calculation for Democratic control of the Senate changes significantly.

Republican turnout on Election Day will be the deciding factor in the Senate. Republicans overwhelmingly vote in person on the day of the election. High turnout could limit Democratic gains to one seat. Low turnout could result in Democrats flipping six or seven seats and taking control of the chamber. President Trump has campaigned in several red states to encourage his base to vote.

Vote counting begins at 6 p.m. ET in Kentucky and Indiana. Results will follow as polls close across the country. Many races are expected to be close, which may delay final certification. Voters should expect delays in some states. It could take days or even weeks to know the winner in certain contests.