New data suggests Americans agree on more than they think
Researchers argue that perceived political divides are wider than actual policy differences, citing a 60% middle group identified by Pew Research.
By Alina Marshall ·
Americans may be closer to one another than their news feeds suggest.
Political scientists are challenging the common belief that the country is split into two irreconcilable camps. They argue that while polarization exists, a large segment of the population holds views that cross traditional party lines. This middle ground is often invisible in daily political discourse.
The disconnect between perceived and actual division was illustrated in a recent conversation between two friends in Houston and Edgewater, Maryland. Shanna Berry, a retired hairdresser and Air Force veteran, supports President Trump. Her friend Alma Ong, a Buddhist who grew up in London, leans liberal. The pair initially avoided discussing the January U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to protect their friendship.
When Berry finally spoke, she said the end of the regime was necessary, though she questioned the legalities and suspected oil interests were at play. She noted that many Venezuelans are happy with the change. Ong, who expected a stark difference in opinion, was surprised by the alignment. She stated that she agreed with absolutely everything Berry said.
Kristin Laurin, a psychology professor at the University of British Columbia, says this exchange reflects a broader trend in research. She notes that people often avoid political talk due to fear of conflict. This silence leads them to overestimate their differences. Laurin pointed out that these friends were making assumptions that proved wrong. They actually believed similar things about the event.
Laurin attributes the perception gap to political elites and social media. She says politicians paint opponents as extreme to energize voters. Social media platforms amplify rage to drive engagement. As a result, the perceived polarization far outstrips the actual polarization on the ground.
The James Comey indictment in April provided a recent example of this overlap. Comey, the former FBI director, was indicted for posting a photo of seashells that the Department of Justice claimed was a death threat against the president. While Democrats were appalled, many conservatives also expressed shock. Jonathan Turley, a constitutional law professor at George Washington University Law School, told Fox News he felt he was in a parallel universe discussing shell art.
Stan Fletcher, a restaurateur near the Chesapeake Bay who voted for Trump all three times, sided with Comey. He argued that no one should be indicted for their opinion. Fletcher believes 95% of America falls under a bell curve of moderates. He said the public hears mostly about the wackos on both the left and the right.
The non-partisan Pew Research Center supports Fletcher’s view. Pew classifies Americans into nine groups based on values and attitudes. One group, the Pragmatic and Polite Right, includes 56% Republicans or Republican-leaning individuals and 37% Democrats or Democratic-leaning individuals. This group values civility and is conservative on economics but moderate on race and immigration.
Jocelyn Kiley, who leads politics research at Pew, said looking beneath party labels reveals significant variation and overlap. She noted that this messy political middle is larger than the ideological extremes. Pew estimates this middle group makes up about 60% of the electorate. The groups farthest to the right, including the No Apologies Right and Faith First Conservatives, account for just 21% of the population.
