San Juan River: Forecast crests above 1911 flood mark

The San Juan River in Pagosa Springs, Colorado, is forecast to crest at 19.71 feet around 11 p.m. on Sunday. That level stands approximately two feet higher than the 17.8 feet recorded during the 1911 flood, an event that destroyed most of the town's infrastructure at the time.

The Archuleta County Sheriff's Office issued the warning in a social media post, describing the event as potentially catastrophic. Deputies noted that extensive damage is expected if the river reaches the predicted height. As of 3:45 p.m. on Sunday, the office asked residents to shelter in place.

In the adjacent Four Corners region of New Mexico, the San Juan County Office of Emergency Management issued evacuation alerts for Sunday afternoon. The order applies to anyone living within half a mile of the Animas, La Plata, and San Juan rivers. Officials directed residents to move to higher ground immediately.

San Juan County spokesperson Devin Neeley stated that crews are positioned to handle emerging problems. He emphasized the need for the public to leave before rescues become necessary. Neeley reported that no rescues had been required as of 4:40 p.m. on Sunday.

Meteorological data from the National Weather Service in Albuquerque indicates heavy precipitation over the past 24 hours. The Chuska Mountains received 1.8 inches of rain, while the Farmington area recorded up to 1.25 inches. The agency maintains a flood warning for parts of San Juan County until Tuesday.

Elvira Arviso, a resident of Bloomfield, New Mexico, spoke by phone about the current conditions. She lives just under a mile from the San Juan River and noted that recent floods came within 200 yards of her property. Arviso described the situation as scary and said everyone remains on edge.

Neeley explained that previous flooding altered the river channel. The addition of silt, sand, and debris to the riverbed means that future flooding impacts will likely be greater than those experienced in prior events.

This weather system follows a period of widespread destruction in northwest New Mexico. President Donald Trump approved Federal Emergency Management Agency aid for the region after several inches of rain caused significant damage. Recovery efforts were underway when the new round of precipitation began.

In southwest Colorado, the Wolf Creek Ski Area closed as a precaution. The closure will remain in effect until the evacuation order is lifted. The Pagosa Springs area, a town of more than 2,000 people near several ski resorts, is expected to receive three inches of rain on Sunday. Mountain areas may see up to 18 inches of snow depending on elevation.